The nature of power in Tehran today is very different from what it was in the 1970s.
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Ali Khamenei views the June 18 presidential election as an opportunity to realise his vision for the future of Iran.
![This handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on June 4, 2021 shows him addressing the nation during a live TV appearance. In his speech, Khamenei urged voters to turn out for this month's presidential election, warning that staying away would mean doing the work of the "enemies of Islam". Iranians are set to elect a successor to President Hassan Rouhani on June 18 [Khamenei.IR/ via AFP]](/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/000_9BD498.jpg?resize=270%2C180&quality=80)
The IRGC will likely play a more active political role in Iran, which means talks with the US are unlikely to resume.
![This handout photo provided by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official website via SEPAH News shows General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the IRGC's aerospace division, during the launch of a military satellite on April 22, 2020 [File: SEPAH News/AFP]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/000_1QR1W4.jpg?resize=270%2C180&quality=80)
The Iranian authorities are ramping up repression. They fear mass protests now more than ever.
The Iranian leadership is desperate to secure a smooth election in 2020, but its tactics might not work.
However, the current US maximum pressure strategy will not result in political change either.
And will it be a ‘Kaveh’ or an ‘Alexander the Great’ who leads it?
The conservative hardliner is the most likely successor of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Ayatollah Khamenei wants to leave a lasting legacy behind and submitting to the US cannot be part of it.
IRGC staff changes and talk of the merits of a ‘military president’ suggest that a coup might be under consideration.
